All of us in the senior living industry understand that inventory growth has exceeded demand, causing vacancies to rise. I was at a recent symposium and one of the speakers said that the decline in demand was caused by the great depression, an intriguing concept. Research indicates that from 1927 to 1933 that birth rates decreased by more than 425,000, over 15%. This would certainly impact demand, it seems.
The speaker then said that this reversed in the 4th quarter of 2017 and that demand was picking up. A study of US census information shows that it started picking up in 1937, escalating significantly through the start of world war two. 1937 was 82 years ago. The average age for entry to senior living communities is 84 according to most of our clients. This would mean there may be a little more time to wait for a resurgence of demand, unfortunately.’
Peter Douglas, P.E.
President
The Douglas Company
